Shape of Parties To Come

Today, the two parties in the electorate and in government represent distinct coalitions of voters largely mirroring something of a split with an ostensibly more liberal party (Democrats) and a conservative party (Republicans). But they are not uniformly aligned along an axis of ideology (I don't believe that the parties ever have been). There is not a progressive or liberal party quite like there is a conservative party. And ideological differentiations in the electorate and in those who make up government are shifting, as per demographics, geography, and socio-economic characteristics. Running through this really takes a lot more analysis and writing to cover thoroughly.

But consider this proposition in thinking about the developing contours of American politics over the next 25 years, especially in the context of the coming civil war of sorts in the GOP (whether or not they get what the civil war should be fought over - hint to the GOP: it's not tactics, it's strategy; and no one is - and god willing, will be - buying your current strategic political program):

(Note: I use ideological labels as in popular usage - this is to say that "true conservative" has little meaning outside of the contemporary definitions of conservatism...balanced budgets are not inherently an ideological proposition, they take on ideological character only the context of current economic situations and choices of priorities. Same deal with foreign affairs activity.)

The GOP will become a party marked by socio-cultural conservatism and foreign affairs militarism (as if they aren't already). Some older guard business and wealth elites will cling to the party and eventually fade away. The uniform coalition of economic royalist conservatives, socio-cultural conservatives, and foreign affairs conservatives is and has been breaking up and it will cleave in the near future.

The Democratic party (note: lower-case "p," please people!) will become a party of socio-cultural liberals, foreign affairs liberals, and business elites. The working class and unionists, holding other characteristics constant, will lean towards the Democrats.

None of this seems revelatory - but my point is that this will become the dominant narrative as these contours become written very large. There will be a disconnect between ideology and party in that the former has multiple axes (and perhaps two dimensions) while the latter is only bi-directional on one axis. What remains to be seen is if this trending continues. What will predict it is the performance of the Democratic party in government. Will they govern as progressives or liberals, or will they govern as center-right-ish "moderates," making false choices and neglecting the political economy of politics and economics both.

As always, remember that parties and ideology are not one and the same (as noted above, both in terms of axes and dimensions) and that party is not Party.

My project: build a stronger Party while at the same time working to create a more progressive party. I believe that both must include integration of consideration of political economy of class, universalist policy, and economic justice. If this is successful, the party contours as noted above, to say nothing of the ideological contours un-discussed, will be totally wrong in appraising reality.